Topic XXI. Wisdom of Crowds vs. Herd Thinking
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Context for this filter:
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LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Wisdom of Crowds: Sometimes groups make better judgments than individuals. This happens when:
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EXAMPLES
- Exemplary Quotes
- "We can get a pretty good estimate of the weight of this turkey by asking everyone in the family to write their guess privately on a piece of paper, and then averaging the answers."
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Wisdom of Crowds: Sometimes groups make better judgments than individuals. This happens when:
- a. Judgments are genuinely independent, preventing herd thinking.
- b. Members of the group do not share the same biases.
- c. There are enough people in the group to balance out random biases or fluctuations (analogous to the need for an adequate sample size).
- d. Works especially well when estimating a quantity, where errors may be large but are not systematic.
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Recognize when groups are likely to make good decisions.
- Structure group decision-making processes so as to maximize the benefits and minimize the dangers.
- Identify features of existing group decision-making practices which we could improve.