26 <strong>Topic XXVI. Can We Do Better Together?</strong> …
Topic XXVI. Scenario Planning
- A third approach to integrating facts and values under conditions of uncertainty about what the future will be like.
- Here, we explore scenario planning, a technique for systematically considering possible futures. This is valuable for planning because we often do not know exactly what the future will look like, and need to plan for multiple contingencies.
- Addressing the Question: How should we use science to make better decisions?
- Exemplary Quotes
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
- A. ATTITUDES
- Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Scenario Planning: A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning. .C
- Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
- a. Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
- b. Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
- c. Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.
- Suggested Readings & Reading Questions
- Clicker Questions
- Discussion Questions
- Class Exercises