Topic VI. Correlation and Causation
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Context for this filter:
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LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Correlation is insufficient to demonstrate causation because there are other causal structures that lead to correlation:
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EXAMPLES
- Exemplary Quotes
- “What if causation goes the other way, or there’s a common cause? We’re getting all upset about the violence on television causing the violence in the streets because they seem to go up and down together in prevalence, but how do we know that it isn’t the other way around, or that they aren’t both being caused by some third factor. Maybe we can look at the timing of one with respect to the other? Or could we possibly control one of the factors by itself and see what happens?”
LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Correlation is insufficient to demonstrate causation because there are other causal structures that lead to correlation:
- a. A causes B (direct causation);
- b. B causes A (reverse causation);
- c. A and B are both caused by C
- d. A causes B and B causes A (bidirectional or cyclic causation);
- e. There is no connection between A and B; the correlation is a coincidence.
- f. The effect of A on B depends on C
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- State some of the basic problems in establishing causation.
- Recognize some of the basic problems in establishing causation and use them to identify situations in which claims of causation are and are not warranted.
- Identify the flaw in an argument in which correlation is inappropriately being substituted for causation.
- Address the argument, “Science can only establish correlations; it can’t determine causality.”
CLASS ELEMENTS
- Practice Problems
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EXAMPLES
- Exemplary Quotes
- “Ok, I agree that ‘correlation doesn’t prove causation’ in general, but in a case like this where we have lots of other kinds of evidence it sure gives us a pretty strong guess about causation.”
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
- Students are quick to notice small sample size, slower to notice problems with experimental design.
- Identifying natural experiments is also difficult, probably because many students find the principles of RCTs slippery.