Topic XV. Heuristics & Biases
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LEARNING GOALS
 B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
 Base rates: The base frequency of a given attribute in a whole population.

LEARNING GOALS
 B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
 Base rates: The base frequency of a given attribute in a whole population.
 a. Bayesian reasoning: Systematically combining information regarding new evidence with prior beliefs to determine the probability of a hypothesis.
 b. Bayes Rule: $$P(AB) = (P(BA)*P(A))/P(B)$$ where $$A$$ & $$B$$ are events and $$P(B)$$ ≠ $$0$$.
 The formal statistical rule for applying Bayesian reasoning. When updating beliefs, final credence level should be influenced by initial credence level and the strength of the new evidence.
 C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
 Given an example in which a person updates her belief, identify the two factors that should influence her final credence level (initial credence level and strength of the evidence), and recognize that Bayes rule provides a formal specification of how to do so.