Topic XII. Calibration of Credence Levels
Context for this filter:
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Scientific culture at its best reinforces the importance of uncertainty by offering respect and career advancement to people on the basis of calibration as well as accuracy. In attaching the ego to calibration as well as accuracy, this discourages scientists from being overly attached to their ideas being “right,” encouraging them to prioritize truth over having been right.
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Compare reliability of sources of information on the basis of their assiduousness in determining confidence levels and probabilistic ranges for results (e.g., confidence intervals, error bars).
- Recognize that for scientific findings that are presented as having 95% certainty (for example), 5% of such results should be incorrect.
- Not be fooled by criticisms of scientific communities for occasionally (~5% of the time, for example) having results later shown to be wrong.