Topic XII. Calibration of Credence Levels
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Context for this filter:
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LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Confidence Interval: A range within which a true value of interest lies with a specified probability.
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EXAMPLES
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Confidence Interval: A range within which a true value of interest lies with a specified probability.
- Most commonly a 95% confidence interval, which means there is a 5% chance the true value lies outside the range specified.
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Compare reliability of sources of information on the basis of their assiduousness in determining confidence levels and probabilistic ranges for results (e.g., confidence intervals, error bars).
- Recognize that for scientific findings that are presented as having 95% certainty (for example), 5% of such results should be incorrect.
- Identify higher/lower accuracy and better/worse calibration in concrete examples.
CLASS ELEMENTS
- Discussion Questions
- What are some ordinary-life scenarios in which talk of confidence intervals might be useful? Hint: When deciding whether or not to stay in a job & wait for a raise, when financial planning, when betting, etc.