Topic XI. Probabilistic Reasoning
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LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT ACQUISITION
- Credence: level of confidence that a claim is true, from 0 to 1.
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EXAMPLES
- Exemplary Quotes
- "I'm 95% confident that this battery is not going to explode. But more than even a 1% chance of our robot exploding would lead is too risky, so we shouldn't use this battery until we are more confident it won't explode."
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
LEARNING GOALS
- B. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Appropriately weigh uncertainty in decisions involving risk. Identify a reasonable threshold of confidence for a given decision.
- Recognize situations where confidence levels can high enough for risky action (e.g. sometimes confidence is high enough to bet your life or the lives of others, even without perfect certainty).
- Explain how the treatment of uncertainty in scientific work allows scientists to follow the truth, even when that means changing their minds.
CLASS ELEMENTS
- Discussion Questions
- Do you have any beliefs for which you have less than 1.0 credence but do not know how to do without?
- Discuss any current controversial topic, but for each statement anyone makes, they have to give it a credence level.
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EXAMPLES
- Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, & Misunderstandings
LEARNING GOALS
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Identify higher/lower accuracy and better/worse calibration in concrete examples.
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LEARNING GOALS
- C. CONCEPT APPLICATION
- Given an example in which a person updates her belief, identify the two factors that should influence her final credence level (initial credence level and strength of the evidence), and recognize that Bayes rule provides a formal specification of how to do so.